Will The Economic Rebound Continue This Fall?
During the second quarter, the economy suffered the worst contraction since World War II. But the strength of the subsequent rebound has Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group expecting further improvement. In fact, according to their latest forecast, the group believes that – barring a worsening of the coronavirus outbreak – the recovery will continue into the third quarter. And Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae's chief economist, says the housing market will lead the way. “We believe housing will continue to be a sector with relative strength amid the larger downturn, as long-running supply constraints exacerbate demographic and interest rate demand-side factors that are supporting home price growth,” Duncan said. “The recently observed increase in purchase demand is largely due to pent-up demand as buyers are acting now after delaying purchases in the spring.” Additionally the ESR Group says that any regional coronavirus flare-ups are unlikely to lead to a further economic contraction and, instead, will result only in a temporary pause in the growth rate. Because of this, they've revised upward their forecast for home sales and mortgage originations this year. (source)